Industry Outlook For 2025

 By Diane M. Calabrese | Published January 2025

Who can tell what will happen in 2025? Not any one of us. Yet we each have an outlook—positive, neutral, or negative—for the New Year.

It’s an outlook informed by experience (fortified by data) as well as predictions based on that experience. What happens in a particular industry may be unique, but variables affecting the national economy become factors specific to each industry.

So, let’s look to the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA.gov), the statistical and independent division of the U.S. Department of Commerce. BEA updates its analyses regularly, and as we write we have the numbers from mid-November 2024.

Start with a broad look at the nation. According to BEA, gross domestic product for the third quarter of 2024 increased at an annual rate of 2.8 percent. Disposable personal income (DPI), however, was slow to grow, if it grew at all. A gain in DPI in September 2024 was put at 0.3 percent.

The smidgen of growth in DPI helps explain the much-reported sentiment among consumers that they cannot keep pace with the cost of living. When consumers believe they have less disposable income, they will pull back on paying for products and services beyond necessities.

Consequently, flat or small increases in DPI can reduce the number of customers for contractors. Fewer jobs for contractors translate eventually to fewer needs for equipment and ancillaries that contractors deploy, which reduces sales for distributors and manufacturers.

Of course, it’s a global economy. Thus, BEA also reports on international economic accounts. The picture is not rosy. U.S. international transactions continued to put the U.S. side of the ledger at a loss, and the loss was growing. For instance, it grew at more than 10 percent in a single quarter (between quarters one and two in 2024). The U.S. international investment position also went further into negative territory, according to BEA.

The U.S. has a big and growing debt, and the debt service consumes a great deal of money. It factors into interest rates and lending practices in a way that makes it more difficult for businesses to obtain the capital they require for new ventures. The plateauing or slowing innovation may result from difficulties accessing capital.

Trade is not working in favor of the United States. The data from the BEA show, for instance, that the monthly trade deficit jumped from a negative $70.8 billion for August 2024 to a negative $84.4 billion for September 2024.

Foreign direct investment in U.S. businesses also was in quite steep decline. Between 2014 and 2022, the average annual investment was $265.6 billion, according to BEA. But it went down to $148.8 billion in 2023.

The foregoing data summaries are among the financial indicators that businesses in all sectors consider when looking ahead. Fortunately, there are indicators that are more positive.

The pause in much economic activity that occurred 2020 through 2022 resulted in less demand for natural gas (and other fuels). Fuel prices remain steady or lower in many areas.

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA.gov), there is ample fuel. Moreover, the incoming president has promised to push for more energy production.

Energy prices should not soar even with the normal cold start to the year. (And many parts of the nation expect a warmer than normal winter.) Stable energy prices provide a great boost to business and industry. So, let the optimism begin there.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS.gov) provides detailed information about overall U.S. employment and trends. For the year ending September 30, 2024, the increase in compensation for employees was down to 3.9 percent from 4.3 percent for the previous year.

Prospective employees may want much higher wages. But meeting compensation requests will not be difficult enough to impede hiring. Stability in wage growth also translates into better employee retention because onboard employees do not expect to find higher paychecks elsewhere.

Workforce stability enables businesses to retain well-trained employees and focus on growing stronger and in new ways. Thus, another positive for the future.

Industry-Specific View—Positive

“Caution” might be the operative word for 2025. The industry members we queried about their outlook were not prepared to share it for the most part. (Let’s hope it’s so good they want to hold their cards close to the vest.)

The team at Wood Defender/Standard Paints Inc., which is based in Mansfield, TX, however, did get together to reflect on what may come. Laurel McEuen, the marketing director at the company, shares their thoughts–sentiments that include a healthy dose of all things positive.

Begin with optimism. “What makes us most optimistic about the power-washing and cleaning industry in 2025 is the rising awareness among homeowners and property managers of the importance of regular maintenance for outdoor structures,” says McEuen.

Realizing the full lifespan of structures has become important in every realm. It results in cost savings for owners, and it reduces waste and energy use because replacement entails energy-consuming disposal and rebuilds.

“As more people invest in the longevity of their outdoor wood surfaces, the demand for reliable power washing and high-quality, exterior oil-based wood staining products will only grow,” explains McEuen. She adds the investment by consumers is being met by increasing professionalism among service and product providers.

With members of the industry committed to training and certification, “Consumers are gaining access to expert services that provide consistent, high-quality results,” explains McEuen. “For stain manufacturers this trend represents a great opportunity to collaborate more closely with power-washing professionals as their work lays the foundation for effective staining.”

To be sure, just as there is no garden without weeds, there are no businesses without a few concerns. The reality of challenges to be met remains a constant.

“One potential concern is the growing emphasis on environmental regulations,” says McEuen. Power washing and staining industries must be ready to “adapt quickly to ensure they can continue offering services that meet consumer expectations.”

To keep pace with and stay ahead of expectations, McEuen’s company retains a research and development staff that includes a compliance director. A full team of coating chemists is also in place.

The need for “ongoing education and professional standards” is a concern, too, says McEuen. “Some providers may not be fully prepared to meet customers’ needs, which can impact the quality of surface preparation and ultimately, staining results.”

There are broad implications for the reflection on standards. All businesses benefit from them. Can we expect more standardization in 2025? The professional organizations representing our industry continue to develop them and update as needed.

“Effective training and education protect the reputation of and general attitude toward the industry,” says McEuen. “A focus on eco-conscious practices and professional training can alleviate challenges and create opportunities.”

McEuen explains that her team converges on a good outlook for our industry. “The power-washing and cleaning industry has shown impressive resilience and growth in recent years, and we see a strong alignment between our work in exterior oil-based staining and the goals of power-washing professionals.”

In fact, it is “synergy” that helps make the outlook doubly bright, explains McEuen. “Power-washing plays a critical role in preparing surfaces for staining by removing dirt, debris, and organic growth, which allows our products to adhere more effectively and deliver long-lasting results.

“This synergy not only enhances the value of both services but also meets homeowners’ demands for durable, well-maintained outdoor spaces,” continues McEuen. “We expect continued growth, driven by the public’s emphasis on both outdoor living spaces and the importance of preventative maintenance.”